Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 35.644708 38.510143 41.653532 45.388456 49.746837 54.725656 60.923953
2025-08-31 31.343038 35.041359 39.360486 44.876903 51.892114 60.755693 73.240801
2025-09-07 29.314956 33.531298 38.670760 45.584997 54.973944 67.858214 88.138824
2025-09-14 27.349424 31.778092 37.340324 45.110364 56.198788 72.457225 100.642600
2025-09-21 25.525573 29.992194 35.724333 43.957697 56.162104 75.030522 110.560911
2025-09-28 24.041716 28.507149 34.340297 42.916789 56.052986 77.348795 120.735916
2025-10-05 23.737334 28.526396 34.949662 44.735975 60.517200 88.181855 153.078176
2025-10-12 23.169071 28.134742 34.934270 45.594719 63.539309 97.238213 187.974615
2025-10-19 22.600850 27.695225 34.799517 46.228580 66.248977 106.460706 232.256690
2025-10-26 21.988201 27.149588 34.458783 46.480188 68.291031 114.909314 285.309593
2025-11-02 21.206828 26.319313 33.635301 45.852694 68.575229 119.410414 330.423373
2025-11-09 20.363921 25.360363 32.560886 44.711030 67.699433 120.829631 364.253361
2025-11-16 19.600970 24.516033 31.662562 43.882119 67.519743 124.562012 426.312746
2025-11-23 18.965088 23.831487 30.975702 43.369267 67.941922 130.265549 528.080318
2025-11-30 18.650349 23.598977 30.969315 44.038861 70.963262 145.020053 835.991206
2025-12-07 18.117378 23.016510 30.374424 43.591554 71.454975 152.126808 1182.475684
2025-12-14 17.487132 22.263586 29.469623 42.504932 70.335415 153.285424 1471.757154
2025-12-21 16.918143 21.583093 28.651100 41.522602 69.341227 154.662018 1912.037044
2025-12-28 16.926473 21.773292 29.246529 43.238760 75.088471 186.178080 586767.645447
2026-01-04 16.753949 21.677574 29.364242 44.047820 78.792922 213.394399 NaN
2026-01-11 16.550672 21.524554 29.375400 44.644581 82.088611 243.125424 NaN
2026-01-18 16.295421 21.279702 29.216772 44.881362 84.457028 271.433670 NaN
2026-01-25 15.915162 20.825199 28.678286 44.290740 84.335325 283.293200 NaN